Case 00097 / Lucas Davies
Frozen recommendation evidence, ranked alternatives, source lineage, and publication context for the selected case.
Lead route
Extend 12 Months
Approval
Not Required
Policy
Review Required
Expected delta
£10K
Decision cycle
01 Apr, 09:20
Policy Owner / Default Seed Generated
Live publication
01 Apr, 09:20
420 recommendation changes across 420 cases.
Recommendation and approval logic
- Current plan
- Auction
- Recommended path
- Extend 12 Months
- Selected path
- Not actioned
- Current plan value
- £8K
- Recommended value
- £18K
- Top drivers
- Irregular payment review trigger / 12-month extension age ceiling / Residual pressure is compressing uplift on disposal and extension routes.
Frozen rationale
12-month extension preserves value against immediate disposal while residual pressure and servicing drag stay controllable.
Policy hits
Passed
6-month extension age ceiling / Arrears ceiling / Auction fallback threshold / EV volatility review trigger / Stale valuation review / Treatment posture exception route / Van route age threshold
Blocked
Digital retail segment eligibility / Retail mileage overrun ceiling
Review Required
12-month extension age ceiling / Extension mileage ceiling / Irregular payment review trigger / Negative equity escalation trigger / Residual tolerance for PCP extension / Van mileage threshold
Ranked alternatives and route economics
| Route | Status | Delta | Expected value | Approval | Policy hits | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extend 12 Months | Recommended / Not Applicable / Review Required | £10K | £18K | Approval required | Passed: Arrears ceiling, 6-month extension age ceiling, Treatment posture exception route, EV volatility review trigger, Stale valuation review, Van route age threshold / Blocked: / Review Required: Irregular payment review trigger, 12-month extension age ceiling, Residual tolerance for PCP extension, Negative equity escalation trigger, Extension mileage ceiling, Van mileage threshold | 12-month extension preserves value against immediate disposal while residual pressure and servicing drag stay controllable. |
| Re-Lease | Permitted / Not Applicable / Review Required | £7.5K | £15.5K | Approval required | Passed: Arrears ceiling, Treatment posture exception route, EV volatility review trigger, Stale valuation review, Van route age threshold / Blocked: / Review Required: Irregular payment review trigger, Negative equity escalation trigger, Van mileage threshold | Re-lease holds the strongest retained-value position while mileage, vehicle age, and irregular payment posture remain inside tolerance. |
| Extend 6 Months | Permitted / Not Applicable / Review Required | £6.7K | £14.7K | Approval required | Passed: Arrears ceiling, 6-month extension age ceiling, Treatment posture exception route, EV volatility review trigger, Stale valuation review, Van route age threshold / Blocked: / Review Required: Irregular payment review trigger, 12-month extension age ceiling, Residual tolerance for PCP extension, Negative equity escalation trigger, Van mileage threshold | 6-month extension preserves value against immediate disposal while residual pressure and servicing drag stay controllable. |
| Trade Sale | Permitted / Capacity Limited / Review Required | £424.7 | £8.4K | Approval required | Passed: Arrears ceiling, Treatment posture exception route, EV volatility review trigger, Stale valuation review, Van route age threshold / Blocked: / Review Required: Irregular payment review trigger, Negative equity escalation trigger, Van mileage threshold | Trade Sale Disposal is commercially credible for this van case, but current Trade Sale headroom is binding and a lower-friction route can clear sooner. |
| Auction | Current Plan / Capacity Limited / Review Required | £0 | £8K | Approval required | Passed: Arrears ceiling, Auction fallback threshold, Treatment posture exception route, EV volatility review trigger, Stale valuation review, Van route age threshold / Blocked: / Review Required: Irregular payment review trigger, Negative equity escalation trigger, Van mileage threshold | Auction Disposal is commercially credible for this van case, but current Auction headroom is binding and a lower-friction route can clear sooner. |
| Manual Review | Permitted / Not Applicable / Permitted | -£236.6 | £7.8K | Approval required | Passed: / Blocked: / Review Required: | Manual review is being held as the controlled path because treatment, arrears, or policy friction prevents straight-through release. |
| Digital Retail | Blocked / Available / Blocked | £1.2K | £9.2K | No approval gate | Passed: Arrears ceiling, Treatment posture exception route, EV volatility review trigger, Stale valuation review, Van route age threshold / Blocked: Digital retail segment eligibility, Retail mileage overrun ceiling / Review Required: Irregular payment review trigger, Negative equity escalation trigger, Van mileage threshold | Blocked by policy: Digital retail segment eligibility. |
Source feeds, snapshots, and batch posture
Inspection and mileage feed
Attention
420 records aligned; 142 held rows across mileage.
Batch BAT-IH-000002
As of 18 Mar, 00:00
Captured 01 Apr, 09:20
420 ingested / 142 held out / Mileage
Market signal feed
Ready
714 records aligned to the live publication.
Batch BAT-MSF-000002
As of 01 Apr, 09:20
Captured 01 Apr, 09:20
714 ingested / 0 held out / Market, Valuation
Residual valuation feed
Ready
126 records aligned to the live publication.
Batch BAT-RW-000002
As of 24 Mar, 00:00
Captured 01 Apr, 09:20
126 ingested / 0 held out / Valuation
Servicing behaviour feed
Attention
420 records aligned; 114 held rows across payment.
Batch BAT-SC-000002
As of 26 Mar, 00:00
Captured 01 Apr, 09:20
420 ingested / 114 held out / Payment
Treatment and hardship feed
Attention
420 records aligned; 67 held rows across treatment.
Batch BAT-TD-000002
As of 01 Apr, 09:20
Captured 01 Apr, 09:20
420 ingested / 67 held out / Treatment
Frozen evidence used for this recommendation
Valuation / Market Signal Feed
Frozen snapshot reference recorded
Fresh
- As of
- 21 Mar, 00:00
- Captured
- 01 Apr, 09:20
Market Value Estimate
11214.87
Booked Residual Value
17337.44
Cash Release Estimate
-1193.34
Mileage / Inspections Hub
Frozen snapshot reference recorded
Watch
- As of
- 18 Feb, 00:00
- Captured
- 01 Apr, 09:20
Mileage Actual
105939
Mileage Expected
87000
Mileage Ratio
1.2177
Payment / Servicing Core
Frozen snapshot reference recorded
Stale
- As of
- 04 Mar, 00:00
- Captured
- 01 Apr, 09:20
Arrears Count
2
Last Payment Date
2026-03-04
Settlement Balance
12408.21
Treatment / Treatment Desk
Frozen snapshot reference recorded
Fresh
- As of
- 01 Apr, 09:20
- Captured
- 01 Apr, 09:20
Support Flag
No
Contactability Band
friction
Hardship Status
none
Treatment Posture
standard
Market / Market Signal Feed
Frozen snapshot reference recorded
Fresh
- As of
- 01 Apr, 09:20
- Captured
- 01 Apr, 09:20
Market Index
1.0033
Residual Pressure
0
Negative Equity
6122.57